Understanding the Occurrence and Impact of Extended Dark Doldrum Periods for Long-Term Resource Planning

Power and Energy Society

Speaker: Daniel Kirk-Davidoff & Andrea Staid, Energy Systems and Climate Analysis Group at EPRI

Time: Refreshments start at 6pm, talk begins at 6:30pm

As we move towards a decarbonized electricity system, grid operators are increasing their reliance on wind and solar resources as costs have declined and capacity factors have increased with technology advances. However, extended periods of dark doldrums, when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun not shining, can pose reliability risks on future energy systems with high levels of variable wind and solar electricity generation. Better understanding these risks and applying methods to account for them in electricity system planning models is important to achieve a successful energy transition. This research analyzes a multi-decade history of weather data to provide insight on the likelihood and characteristics of dark doldrums risks for electricity system planners. It also demonstrates planning methods to optimize low-carbon electricity portfolios that incorporate dark doldrums risk while maintaining reliability. In this talk we will highlight work done to examine the co-variability of wind and solar generation and electrical demand at a range of timescales and as a function of location, to understand how the uncertain technical aspects of future electrical grids (e.g., the cost of electrical storage capacity and power) will interact with this variability and influence the optimal pathways towards higher reliance on renewable generation resource.

Biographies

Daniel Kirk-Davidoff is a Senior Technical Leader in the Energy Systems and Climate Analysis group at EPRI, focusing on understanding the implications of weather variability and climate change for the operations and reliability of a decarbonizing energy system. Kirk-Davidoff’s recent projects include work with EPRI’s Load Forecasting Initiative to identify especially problematic short-term electrical load forecast problems, work with EPRI’s Climate Resilience and Adaptation Initiative to develop actionable guidance on selecting climate data for risk assessment, work with the Resource Adequacy for a Decarbonized Future to improve modeling and accounting for renewable generation variability in system reliability planning, and work with a team from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute on a project to explore renewable energy market structures that account for the uncertainty in renewable generation forecasts. His research at EPRI has been funded in part by grants from the US Department of Energy, the ARPA-E program, and the DOD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program.

Andrea Staid is a Principal Technical Leader in the Energy Systems and Climate Analysis Group at EPRI. Her research focuses on risk and resilience analysis for energy infrastructure planning and operational decision-making, largely with a focus on climate hazards and impacts. Andrea is a co-lead for System Planning and Investment Prioritization on EPRI’s Climate Resilience and Adaptation initiative (Climate READi). Prior to joining EPRI, Andrea worked for Sandia National Laboratories in the Center for Computing Research, with projects covering topics on natural hazard impact modeling for interdependent infrastructure systems, scenario creation to capture renewable energy production uncertainties, and coupling climate risk with infrastructure vulnerabilities. She also worked to advance data analytic methods and implementation across a range of national security applications. Andrea received her MS and PhD degrees in Environmental Systems Engineering from Johns Hopkins University and her BS in Aerospace Engineering from MIT.

Free and Open to the Public; RSVP is appreciated

Visit our web page to RSVP and for further details – IEEE PES Boston

For any questions regarding this presentation or any IEEE PES Boston Technical Meetings, please con PES Boston Technical Meetings Chair: Chris Sweeny (christopher.sweeny@1898andco.com)